Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
